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Abstract It has been suggested that the ratio of photospheric direct to return current, ∣DC/RC∣, may be a better proxy for assessing the ability of solar active regions to produce a coronal mass ejection (CME) than others such as the amount of shear along the polarity inversion line (PIL). To test this conjecture, we measure both quantities prior to eruptive and confined flares of varying magnitude. We find that eruptive-flare source regions have ∣DC/RC∣ > 1.63 and PIL shear above 45° (average values of 3.°2 and 68°, respectively), tending to be larger for stronger events, while both quantities are on average smaller for confined-flare source regions (2.°2 and 68°, respectively), albeit with substantial overlap. Many source regions, especially those of eruptive X-class flares, exhibit elongated direct currents (EDCs) bracketing the eruptive PIL segment, which typically coincide with areas of continuous PIL shear above 45°. However, a small subset of confined-flare source regions have ∣DC/RC∣ close to unity, very low PIL shear (<38°), and no clear EDC signatures, rendering such regions less likely to produce a CME. A simple quantitative analysis reveals that ∣DC/RC∣ and PIL shear are almost equally good proxies for assessing CME-productivity, comparable to other proxies suggested in the literature. We also show that an inadequate selection of the current-integration area typically yields a substantial underestimation of ∣DC/RC∣, discuss specific cases that require careful consideration for ∣DC/RC∣ calculation and interpretation of the results, and suggest improving photospheric CME-productivity proxies by incorporating coronal measures such as the decay index. 

Abstract Observations have shown a clear association of filament/prominence eruptions with the emergence of magnetic flux in or near filament channels. Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations have been employed to systematically study the conditions under which such eruptions occur. These simulations to date have modeled filament channels as 2D flux ropes or 3D uniformly sheared arcades. Here we present MHD simulations of flux emergence into a more realistic configuration consisting of a bipolar active region containing a line-tied 3D flux rope. We use the coronal flux-rope model of Titov et al. as the initial condition and drive our simulations by imposing boundary conditions extracted from a flux emergence simulation by Leake et al. We identify three mechanisms that determine the evolution of the system: (i) reconnection displacing footpoints of field lines overlying the coronal flux rope, (ii) changes of the ambient field due to the intrusion of new flux at the boundary, and (iii) interaction of the (axial) electric currents in the preexisting and newly emerging flux systems. The relative contributions and effects of these mechanisms depend on the properties of the preexisting and emerging flux systems. Here we focus on the location and orientation of the emerging flux relative to the coronal flux rope. Varying these parameters, we investigate under which conditions an eruption of the latter is triggered.